Aug 22

Aug 22 Post post-consumerism: What happens when the bubble bursts?

Last month I went to the Museo do Manha in Rio. It was both fascinating and terrifying. I left, totally convinced that consumerism is a bubble waiting to burst. Whilst anti-consumerism, post-consumerism and lowsumerism are all familiar thoughts, these predict a voluntary navigation from the lifestyles we currently lead. It is far more likely however that consumerism as we know it will end because we will be forced to abandon it. I will go on to explain why I believe this but also ponder what will happen to the advertising industry that has been so entwined with the rise of consumerism.

It's important to note that consumerism has existed in one form or another for thousands of years and increased in prevalence in the industrialising 16-19th Centuries. Despite that, at the beginning of the 20th Century in Europe the average worker spent 80-90% of their income on necessities including water, food, shelter as well as basic clothing and tools. Whilst lavish spending certainly existed it was reserved for a small middle class and aristocracy.

That all changed however in the latter half of the 20th Century. The 1960s created an unprecedented change in consumer behaviour. A post war recovery, advanced manufacturing, the first credit card, air travel, globalisation and economic prosperity led to a rapid rise in spending for pleasure and status. Mass consumerism was truly born. The demand for cheaper consumer goods has been unrelenting since, and as manufacturing technologies have improved that demand has been met.

One industry flourished in this changing landscape - advertising. The rise of TV of course helped but in this period advertising went from being salesmanship to the masses as Claude Hopkins would call it in 1923, to a highly sophisticated, scientific and lucrative industry. No one can deny that consumerism and advertising as we know it are interlinked in their own chicken and egg story.

Another point that is equally important to note is that anti-consumerism has stalked consumerism along this whole journey. With the rise of mass consumerism in the 20C the opposition became more vocal as well. This alternative view comes in three basic waves.

1. Ideological

In the 1960-90s there was an ideological backlash. Hippie culture in the 60s, The Performance Economy (Stahel 1976) in the 70s and minimalism in the 80s and 90s are all examples that show there has always been a resistance to consumerism in this period. Whilst this voice was undeniably there it wasn't often heard by the majority of consumers and did very little if anything to slow down the relentless production lines.

2. Environmental

In the 90s and 2000s this argument was dominated by environmental concern. A slight tack from just an ideological argument this did seem to have a much bigger impact on consumer and corporate behaviour. Whilst consumers were unlikely to make genuine consumption sacrifices they are certainly more conscious of what they consume and the impact it has. Similarly companies have changed what they do and how they manufacture as a result. With that shift the communications world (seems wrong at this point to continue calling it just advertising) changed too. How brands manufactured became as important as what they manufactured.

3. Economical

This is loosely where we're at today. The third wave of anti-consumerism however is not too far away and this has the power to change everything because it's driven by economics.

In 2050 there will be 10 billion people on this earth. That you may know. What you probably didn't know is that 80% of that population will live in cities. Temperatures are going to continue to rise and water will become one of the world's most valued commodities. Feeding that massive urban population is recognised by scientists as one of the biggest challenges humanity will face.

Regardless of new production techniques and advanced manufacturing that may bring some prices down, it seems impossible that simple supply and demand laws won't cause the three most basic human needs (food, shelter, water) to rise dramatically in this century. On top of that our next most required item - clothing - is already showing signs of creaking. The Pulse of Fashion industry Report claims that by 2030 the demand for clothing will increase by 63%. The things we really need are going to become increasingly expensive - perhaps even reaching that 80-90% figure again. I believe this will result in a significant change of attitude.

Earlier this year I was in Reykjavik, Iceland. For those that haven't been it is staggeringly beautiful and staggeringly expensive. Almost everything is imported and annual tourist numbers dwarf the total population. As a result a sliced white loaf of bread in a supermarket will set you back around £5. The way ordinary working people behave is quite interesting. An emphasis is placed on low wastage and of high-quality goods that last a long time.

In other parts of Europe we are seeing similar behaviour. Sweden's social democratic and green government brought in a scheme to incentivise repairs to objects like bicycles and dishwashers. Repairs increase labour and decrease production needs and environmental strain.

Sweden is offering tax breaks to those who get items repaired

I believe we will see more and more behaviour of this type; not just for conscientious reasons but crucially because of economic ones. It is attitudinal, environmental and economic forces coming together that will begin to change behaviour in a major way. The idea of the circular economy will become less a niche and more the mainstream.

In the latter half of the 20C fashion has generally been dominated by flaunting wealth with excessive status symbols. Think fast cars, flashy suits, bling jewellery, massive mansions etc... It is no means implausible that fashion moves towards being frugal and resourceful. There are glimpses of this in past and present. Aristocrats for example shy away from shiny new objects as giveaways of vulgar new money, preferring their old beaten up Land Rover and faded Barbour as their status symbols. The hipster movement also takes many cues from recycling with vintage (or at least what appeasers to be vintage) clothing being the uniform of choice. These examples are currently reserved for niche subcultures, but they have the potential to become mainstream. Who's to say that Buy Nothing Day couldn't become as popular as Black Friday?

So if this happens, is it the end of advertising? No, in fact I believe commercial brand communications can and will have a big impact in encouraging this behaviour. You may believe this is counterintuitive to an industry which is incentivised to sell but there is still ample room for advertisers to differentiate through product quality, effictiveness and ethical issues. Because prices are rising companies don't necessarily need to make less money even if they manufacture and sell less. Ironically they have more to gain than anyone.

It is unlikely however that advertising in its current form would exist in a cultural landscape of this sort. Mass broadcasting isn't a medium that screams economy or efficiency. These are some potential changes to our industry that could happen. Perhaps some of them might be worth adhering to now.

1. Better Products...and less of them

Aided by manufacturing changes such as 3D printing, companies will work harder to create products with better market fit and personalisation. The priority will be those that we need not want. In some ways we are seeing signs of this already - Unilever for example have reduced from 1600 to 350 brands since turn of the century.

2. Digital services will rule

With physical resources costing a premium there will be even greater demand for digital services that help people in their day to day lives. As living gets tougher it will be these services that provide the comfort and luxury in our lives. Brands that never previously sold anything digital may now look to do so.

3. Moral leaders

We're already seeing big brands take a greater moral role in a globalised world. With the collapse of religion in many developed countries and a chronic lack of faith in world leaders brands (and their iconic leaders) are stepping into the void. Don't believe this is happening? just look at the reaction of Apple and Facebook to Trump's more controversial policies, or Tesla's role in building our future.

4. Efficient marketing

With better products will come a new way of marketing, putting efficiency as a key objective and adopting many of the principles of growth hacking. Traditional channels will become less effective and expensive. When consumers find a product that is worth talking about, word will spread fast. Marketing will be built around supporting and fuelling social transmission.

5. More start-ups and innovation

As needs increase and shift more humans will be there to answer them. This invariably will mean more innovation, more start-ups specialising in certain areas.

Conclusion

Of course, plenty of this is speculation, none of this may come to pass. But I take great heart from Noah Yuval Harrari's observation that futurists are not supposed to be right. The point of thinking ahead and planning is to avoid the scenarios that you envisage. Right now amazing work is being done with new farms, using desalination plants powered by fields of solar panels. This could solve all our problems and consumerism could continue to increase over the next 100 years, but right now I can't see it. There is a distasteful unsustainability to our current lifestyle. I'm not talking just about carbon footprint but more the products we buy, the waste we create, the resources we use. Something will have to change.